By newsweek — Jason Lemon — Although President Joe Biden continues to be the clear Democratic frontrunner for his party’s 2024 nomination, he remains unpopular with the American public and looks poorly positioned to defeat any of the top Republican candidates, according to multiple recent polls. Biden, who would be 82 at his potential second inauguration, has been plagued by concerns about his age, as he is already the oldest president in U.S. history. Additionally, polling consistently shows that he gets low marks from voters for his handling of the U.S. economy as well as for his response to the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. The current polling average by news and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, which was last updated on Saturday, shows just over 55 percent of Americans view Biden unfavorably, while a little under 40 percent view him favorably.
Do you think there is any Democrat who could defeat The president’s supporters defend him by pointing to Democrats’ success in the 2022 midterm elections as well as recent off year elections, when voters across the country appeared particularly animated by concerns about Republican opposition to abortion rights. They also say that when ultimately given a choice between Biden or former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, voters will see the current president as the better option.
Here’s a closer look at what the recent polls show.
Trump vs. Biden
Most recent polls show Trump ahead of Biden, or essentially tied. A survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal from November 29 to December 4 shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The former president is supported by 47 percent of respondents, compared to 43 percent who back Biden. The poll included 1,500 registered voters and has margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Emerson College carried out a poll from December 4 to 6, which also showed Trump leading Biden by 4 percent. The percentages were the same as The Wall Street Journal survey, with 47 percent going for Trump and 43 percent supporting Biden. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, and 1,000 registered voters were surveyed. The best recent poll for Biden against Trump was conducted by YouGov/The Economist showing the incumbent Democrat 1 point ahead of his potential Republican opponent. Biden was supported by 42 percent and Trump was backed by 41 percent of respondents—a statistical tie. The survey conducted between December 2 to 5 included 1,291 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Ron DeSantis vs. Biden
Biden appears to be fairing somewhat better against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who recent polls show generally comes in second or third behind Trump in the race for the GOP’s 2024 nomination. However, surveys still appear to show a very close race between the incumbent Democrat and the Republican hopeful. The recent Wall Street Journal poll had DeSantis and Biden both with 45 percent support. Another survey carried out by Harris X/The Messenger had DeSantis leading Biden by 2 points. The Florida Republican was supported by 51 percent of respondents and Biden was backed by 49 percent. The poll was conducted from November 27 to December 1 and included 2,018 registered voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percent. A poll by YouGov/The Economist carried out from November 20 to 27 was the best recent result for Biden against DeSantis, showing the Democrat leading by 3 points. The survey, which included 1,000 respondents, showed Biden with 38 percent compared to the Florida governor’s 35 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percent.
Nikki Haley vs. Biden
Some of the most recent polls suggest that former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, who also previously served as South Carolina’s governor, might be in the strongest position to defeat Biden. Haley also appears to be pulling ahead of DeSantis in recent polls—positioning her as second place to Trump in the GOP field. The recent Wall Street Journal poll shows Haley leading Biden by a whopping 17 points. The Republican was backed by 51 percent of respondents while the president was supported by just 34 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Similarly, the survey by Harris X/The Messenger had Haley ahead of the president by double digits. In that poll, the former South Carolina governor was backed by 55 percent compared to Biden’s 45 percent. The recent Emerson College poll showed Haley and Biden tied. Both received 39 percent support.
What Will Happen?
Political analysts and pundits are quick to point out that it’s far too early to say with any certainty how the 2024 election will play out. While Biden and Trump appear to be heading for a likely rematch, much could happen between now and the start of the primary season. Biden currently faces three long shot primary challengers; Marianne Williamson, Cenk Uygur and Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota. How Trump’s various legal challenges, which he has maintained his innocence, play out remains to be seen as well. However, at the present, the polling does appear to show Biden struggling against his top Republican rivals and is in a weak position heading into 2024. The president, for his part, remains confident he will defeat Trump if they both secure their party’s nominations. “I’m not the only one who can defeat him, but I will defeat him,” Biden told reporters on Wednesday.
